The Odds of a Second EU Referendum Vote nearing 50%

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In the run-up to the 11th December vote that will likely see UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal rejected by the House of Commons, betting markets have increased the chances of a second EU referendum vote happening to almost 50 percent.

According to data from, most bookies have odds that there WON’T be a second referendum set at 4/7 or 8/15 – only slightly higher than 50 percent. This is the second significant change since July this year when Paddy Power increased its odds from 1/3 to 4/9. Over the past few months, Brexit negotiations have been met strong opposition from European policymakers, leaving May with an unsatisfactory deal and very little time to negotiate further.

To reveal just how little faith there is in Teresa May’s deal being accepted, Paddy Power is offering odds of only 5/1 if the deal gets rejected and 5/2 chances of her keeping her job as Conservative Party leader. It is widely believed that the Labour Party will push for a vote of no confidence if the deal is rejected on December 11th.

This past weekend, EU leaders once again reiterated their previous insistence that no other deal will be offered, meaning it is now becoming a very real possibility that the UK will leave the EU with no deal. This revelation has undoubtedly spurred on the increased chances that a second referendum will be held. However, whether or not it will change the eventual outcome is uncertain – the EU is not obliged to retract Article 50 even if Remain voters win a second referendum.

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