Odds of Trump Getting Impeached Decrease After Republican Win

Impeachment news headline on a copy of the United States Constitution

“I tell you what, if I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash, I think everybody would be very poor.”

– Donald Trump, speaking on Fox & Friends, August 2018.

After Republicans narrowly retained control of the U.S. Senate in the recent November elections, Trump’s odds of being impeached have been reduced significantly. With Republican majority control of the Senate, it remains challenging to get the 67 percent vote required to initiate impeachment proceedings.

Earlier this year in May, several betting sites had chances of impeachment set at a 65 percent chance – a figure that has now dropped to around 30 percent. Supporting the possibility of impeachment are fresh rumors that former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort violated his plea agreement and met with Wikileaks founder Julian Assange during the 2016 campaign. However, this has not been enough to increase the odds significantly.

Unibet still gives Trump a 1 in 2 chance of being impeached before the end of his term in 2021, but only a 33/1 chance of it happening this year and 7/4 chance for next year.

Trump Still Popular

Donald Trump is the only U.S. President to have never served in the military, been elected to public office or worked in government before becoming President. However, despite the ongoing controversy and a slew of scandals surrounding the president, he remains the most popular choice for the 2020 elections.

Bovada has him at odds of around a 40 percent chance to win, far higher than the next likely candidate Kamala Harris at approximately 10 percent. By comparison, previous hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are in at less than a few percentage points each.

Democrats Take House of Representatives

While Republicans maintained control of the Senate, they lost control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats. By taking majority control over the House, Democrats now have greater powers to force further investigations into Trump’s administration, something that has previously been blocked to some degree by the Republicans.

While the win gives them greater powers to enact proceedings that could support impeachment, the required two-thirds majority support from the Senate makes it an almost moot point.

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