The ongoing drama surrounding the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) has intensified this week following the news that Prime Minister Theresa May has delayed the proposal of her Brexit deal.
The PM was scheduled to present her deal to the House of Commons this past Tuesday, December 11th. However, due to overwhelming evidence to suggest the deal would not be accepted, she has now delayed the proposal indefinitely. As a result, Conservative Party leaders announced a ‘vote of no confidence’ in the PM, instigating an internal power battle in the leading party.
Theresa May has vehemently opposed the attack, threatening the possibility that Article 50, the legal document outlining the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, will be rescinded if she is removed from power. Furthermore, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) recently ruled that Article 50 could be legally revoked following a second referendum, something that was previously unclear.
All of these combined factors mean the likelihood of Brexit happening by the the scheduled date of April 2019 is now seemingly increasingly unlikely.
Over the past two months, SkyBet have increased their odds on Brexit “Not Before 2022” from a measly 9/2 (18%) to 2/1, suggesting it now has a strong 33.3 percent chance of becoming a reality.
BetFair are offering slightly lower odds of 23/10, just over 30 percent.
However, the bookies chances of it happening by the allotted time still carry the highest odds. SkyBet is offering 11/10 for Brexit happening between “Jan 2019 – March 2019” – just under 50 percent.
BetFair are slightly less optimistic that the Conservative Party will be able to pull something together in time, offering 11/8 odds it’ll happen by March 2019 (42%).
After ten years working for trading and brokerage firms in the city of London, Mark is now a freelance journalist and writer for various finance and technology publications. In between reading up on the latest developments in fintech, he spends his time traveling the world by bicycle.